ATP tennis predict — Michael Geerts vs Lucas Poullain

Challenger Hard Roehampton challenger · QF 13:30

Predicted probability

Michael Geerts

Belgium

31.75%

Lucas Poullain

France

68.25%

Average Odds

1.99 / 1.76

Market probability

46.93% / 53.07%

Why This Prediction?

Lucas Poullain is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1693 vs 1523), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1655 vs 1590) and a stronger return game (44.3% vs 32.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1523.4 Elo 1693.1

1589.8 Elo (surface) 1655.4

152 Wins (Challenger) 68

100 Wins (surface) 58

6 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.821 Dominance ratio 1.132

348 Rank 369

31.6 Age 30.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Geerts

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Lucas Poullain

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Geerts Lucas Poullain

1st Serve In %

54.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.31

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

63.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

58.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Geerts Lucas Poullain

Break Points Saved %

61.9%

—

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

52.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Geerts 0 – 0 Lucas Poullain

Hard Roehampton challenger · 2026-08-20

QF

Lucas Poullain #369

Michael Geerts #348

6-7 6-3 7-5

3 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 2

110 Service Points 100

60 First Serve In 68

37 First Serve Won 45

23 Second Serve Won 16

8 Break Points Saved 3

15 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Michael Geerts vs Lucas Poullain — Prediction