ATP tennis predict — Michael Geerts vs Joao Domingues

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · qualification - round of 16 15:00

Predicted probability

Michael Geerts

Belgium

51.43%

Joao Domingues

Portugal

48.57%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.69

Market probability

65.45% / 34.55%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1559.8 Elo 1491.8

1574.8 Elo (surface) 1465.9

153 Wins (Challenger) 116

101 Wins (surface) 9

6 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.898 Dominance ratio 0.948

344 Rank 596

31.7 Age 33.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Geerts

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Joao Domingues

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-07-18.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Geerts Joao Domingues

1st Serve In %

54.3%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.8%

41.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.2%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.5%

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.4%

57.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.06

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Geerts Joao Domingues

Break Points Saved %

61.9%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

47.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.8%

47.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

46.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Geerts 1 – 0 Joao Domingues

Clay Oeiras CH · 2022-06-20

R16

Michael Geerts #262

Joao Domingues #321

6-1 6-4

6 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 0

48 Service Points 61

32 First Serve In 32

26 First Serve Won 21

11 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Michael Geerts vs Joao Domingues — Prediction