ATP tennis predict — Michael Geerts vs Carlos Sanchez Jover

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 1. round 10:30

Predicted probability

Michael Geerts

Belgium

23.15%

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Spain

76.85%

Average Odds

2.92 / 1.37

Market probability

31.93% / 68.07%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Sanchez Jover is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1630 vs 1485), a higher Elo rating (1634 vs 1561) and a stronger return game (44.4% vs 35.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1561.0 Elo 1634.3

1485.3 Elo (surface) 1630.0

152 Wins (Challenger) 93

52 Wins (surface) 88

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.898 Dominance ratio 0.949

343 Rank 334

31.7 Age 26.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Michael Geerts

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-13.

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Geerts Carlos Sanchez Jover

1st Serve In %

54.3%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.8%

38.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.2%

35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.31

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.5%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.0%

59.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

39.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.5%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Michael Geerts Carlos Sanchez Jover

Break Points Saved %

61.9%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.9%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Michael Geerts 0 – 1 Carlos Sanchez Jover

Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Carlos Sanchez Jover #334

Michael Geerts #343

6-4 7-5

2 Aces 0

8 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

25 First Serve Won 26

14 Second Serve Won 18

9 Break Points Saved 5

13 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Clay Marbella CH · 2021-03-29

Q1

Carlos Sanchez Jover #592

Michael Geerts #359

6-3 6-2

0 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

52 Service Points 55

35 First Serve In 33

23 First Serve Won 19

10 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Michael Geerts vs Carlos Sanchez Jover — Prediction