ATP tennis predict — Mert Naci Turker vs Vadym Ursu

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Mert Naci Turker

Turkey

59.10%

Vadym Ursu

Ukraine

40.90%

Average Odds

2.45 / 1.47

Market probability

37.50% / 62.50%

Why This Prediction?

Mert Naci Turker is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1522 vs 1384), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1529 vs 1420) and fewer double faults per game (0.11 vs 0.38).

Player Comparison

1522.0 Elo 1383.7

1528.5 Elo (surface) 1419.9

4 Wins (Challenger) 41

4 Wins (surface) 34

4 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.789 Dominance ratio 0.939

790 Rank 416

28.0 Age 29.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mert Naci Turker

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Vadym Ursu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Naci Turker Vadym Ursu

1st Serve In %

60.9%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

58.6%

59.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

37.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

52.2%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

42.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.70

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.5%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.48

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Naci Turker Vadym Ursu

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

48.4%

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

36.4%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mert Naci Turker 0 – 0 Vadym Ursu

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Vadym Ursu #416

Mert Naci Turker #790

6-2 6-3

2 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 7

57 Service Points 67

34 First Serve In 35

18 First Serve Won 26

7 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 7

10 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Mert Naci Turker vs Vadym Ursu — Prediction