ATP tennis predict — Mert Naci Turker vs Toufik Sahtali

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Mert Naci Turker

Turkey

58.59%

Toufik Sahtali

Algeria

41.41%

Average Odds

2.73 / 1.40

Market probability

33.90% / 66.10%

Why This Prediction?

Mert Naci Turker is the favorite because he has more career match wins (3 vs 1), better recent form (3 wins in his last 15 matches vs 1) and more wins on hard courts (3 vs 1).

Player Comparison

1458.4 Elo 1708.3

1480.4 Elo (surface) 1549.5

3 Wins (Challenger) 1

3 Wins (surface) 1

3 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.735 Dominance ratio 3.189

838 Rank 500

28.0 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mert Naci Turker

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Toufik Sahtali

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Naci Turker Toufik Sahtali

1st Serve In %

60.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

58.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

52.2%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.61

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.5%

59.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.1%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

55.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.2%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.9%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.34

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.48

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Naci Turker Toufik Sahtali

Break Points Saved %

55.6%

—

Break Points Converted %

60.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.5%

40.9%

Break Points Converted %

36.4%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mert Naci Turker 0 – 0 Toufik Sahtali

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-27

qualification - round of 16

Mert Naci Turker #790

Toufik Sahtali #550

2-6 6-2 7-5

0 Aces 4

7 Double Faults 1

84 Service Points 83

38 First Serve In 54

21 First Serve Won 36

24 Second Serve Won 14

6 Break Points Saved 4

11 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.7 Average Odds 1.4

Mert Naci Turker vs Toufik Sahtali — Prediction