ATP tennis predict — Mert Alkaya vs Tiago Torres

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

52.18%

Tiago Torres

Portugal

47.82%

Average Odds

1.57 / 2.26

Market probability

59.01% / 40.99%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1525.4 Elo 1594.2

1534.9 Elo (surface) 1562.7

20 Wins (Challenger) 14

19 Wins (surface) 5

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.754 Dominance ratio 0.966

300 Rank 352

26.2 Age 24.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Tiago Torres

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-07-20.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Alkaya Tiago Torres

1st Serve In %

60.5%

54.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.5%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

65.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

52.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.9%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Alkaya Tiago Torres

Break Points Saved %

46.7%

61.1%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

48.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mert Alkaya 0 – 0 Tiago Torres

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Mert Alkaya #300

Tiago Torres #352

6-3 4-6 6-2

4 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 5

105 Service Points 97

58 First Serve In 49

30 First Serve Won 31

28 Second Serve Won 21

13 Break Points Saved 9

17 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Mert Alkaya vs Tiago Torres — Prediction