ATP tennis predict — Mert Alkaya vs Sidharth Rawat

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · 1. round 09:20

Predicted probability

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

72.24%

Sidharth Rawat

India

27.76%

Average Odds

1.27 / 3.57

Market probability

73.76% / 26.24%

Why This Prediction?

Mert Alkaya is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1502 vs 1368), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1510 vs 1368) and a stronger serve (63.3% vs 59.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1501.9 Elo 1368.1

1510.4 Elo (surface) 1368.3

18 Wins (Challenger) 55

17 Wins (surface) 54

6 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.902 Dominance ratio 1.043

299 Rank 536

26.2 Age 33.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Sidharth Rawat

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Alkaya Sidharth Rawat

1st Serve In %

60.5%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.5%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

35.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.9%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%

45.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

35.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Alkaya Sidharth Rawat

Break Points Saved %

46.7%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

53.8%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mert Alkaya 0 – 0 Sidharth Rawat

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-11

1. round

Mert Alkaya #299

Sidharth Rawat #536

6-2 6-4

1 Aces 8

0 Double Faults 4

59 Service Points 67

33 First Serve In 44

15 First Serve Won 35

12 Second Serve Won 6

5 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Mert Alkaya vs Sidharth Rawat — Prediction