ATP tennis predict — Mert Alkaya vs Juan Pablo Ficovich

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

47.04%

Juan Pablo Ficovich

Argentina

52.96%

Average Odds

1.76 / 1.97

Market probability

52.82% / 47.18%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1509.5 Elo 1517.8

1492.5 Elo (surface) 1538.6

15 Wins (Challenger) 190

14 Wins (surface) 48

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.072 Dominance ratio 1.104

309 Rank 273

26.1 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Juan Pablo Ficovich

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Alkaya Juan Pablo Ficovich

1st Serve In %

60.5%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.5%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

64.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.9%

64.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

47.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Alkaya Juan Pablo Ficovich

Break Points Saved %

46.7%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

52.0%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mert Alkaya 0 – 0 Juan Pablo Ficovich

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-20

1. round

Mert Alkaya #309

Juan Pablo Ficovich #273

6-3 6-4

5 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

63 Service Points 64

28 First Serve In 41

23 First Serve Won 26

21 Second Serve Won 13

4 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Mert Alkaya vs Juan Pablo Ficovich — Prediction