ATP tennis predict — Mert Alkaya vs Colin Sinclair

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

76.27%

Colin Sinclair

N. Mariana Isl.

23.73%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.31

Market probability

78.36% / 21.64%

Why This Prediction?

Mert Alkaya is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1540 vs 1421), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1535 vs 1424) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1540.4 Elo 1421.0

1534.9 Elo (surface) 1424.1

17 Wins (Challenger) 53

16 Wins (surface) 48

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.883 Dominance ratio 0.998

298 Rank 511

26.1 Age 31.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Colin Sinclair

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-28.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Alkaya Colin Sinclair

1st Serve In %

60.5%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.5%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

41.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.9%

78.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%

57.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

27.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

45.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Alkaya Colin Sinclair

Break Points Saved %

46.7%

14.3%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

20.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

68.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

36.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mert Alkaya 0 – 0 Colin Sinclair

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Colin Sinclair #511

Mert Alkaya #298

0-6 7-5 6-4

10 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 6

97 Service Points 79

49 First Serve In 43

31 First Serve Won 34

26 Second Serve Won 15

3 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.3 Average Odds 1.2

Mert Alkaya vs Colin Sinclair — Prediction