ATP tennis predict — Mert Alkaya vs Akira Santillan

Challenger Hard Segovia challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

51.10%

Akira Santillan

Australia

48.90%

Average Odds

1.75 / 1.98

Market probability

53.08% / 46.92%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1539.4 Elo 1549.4

1528.3 Elo (surface) 1560.6

16 Wins (Challenger) 160

15 Wins (surface) 112

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.047 Dominance ratio 0.880

309 Rank 293

26.1 Age 29.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Akira Santillan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–8L · 27.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Alkaya Akira Santillan

1st Serve In %

60.5%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.9%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

20.5%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.78

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.9%

72.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.5%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.5%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.0%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.27

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mert Alkaya Akira Santillan

Break Points Saved %

46.7%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

25.0%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

52.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.7%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mert Alkaya 0 – 0 Akira Santillan

Hard Segovia challenger · 2026-07-22

R16

Mert Alkaya #309

Akira Santillan #293

6-2 6-2

3 Aces 6

6 Double Faults 1

45 Service Points 44

20 First Serve In 24

11 First Serve Won 21

9 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Mert Alkaya vs Akira Santillan — Prediction