ATP tennis predict — Mees Rottgering vs Edward Winter

Challenger Hard Columbus 3 challenger · 1. round 22:00

Predicted probability

Mees Rottgering

Netherlands

62.83%

Edward Winter

Australia

37.17%

Average Odds

1.35 / 2.90

Market probability

68.24% / 31.76%

Why This Prediction?

Mees Rottgering is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1741 vs 1600), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1699 vs 1585) and more aces per game (0.16 vs 0.04).

Player Comparison

1741.1 Elo 1600.0

1699.4 Elo (surface) 1584.7

11 Wins (Challenger) 41

8 Wins (surface) 39

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.834 Dominance ratio 1.178

335 Rank 343

19.2 Age 22.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mees Rottgering

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Edward Winter

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mees Rottgering Edward Winter

1st Serve In %

56.7%

63.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

42.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.2%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

45.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

39.8%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

38.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.09

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mees Rottgering Edward Winter

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

58.8%

Break Points Converted %

31.6%

25.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.5%

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

32.4%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mees Rottgering and Edward Winter have never played each other.

Mees Rottgering vs Edward Winter — Prediction