ATP tennis predict — Maximus Jones vs Hiroki Moriya

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · R16 05:10

Predicted probability

Maximus Jones

Thailand

65.67%

Hiroki Moriya

Japan

34.33%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.14

Market probability

56.46% / 43.54%

Why This Prediction?

Maximus Jones is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1527 vs 1501) and a stronger serve (63.2% vs 62.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1541.1 Elo 1521.7

1527.3 Elo (surface) 1501.1

48 Wins (Challenger) 308

37 Wins (surface) 276

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.030 Dominance ratio 1.100

489 Rank 518

22.0 Age 35.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maximus Jones

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Hiroki Moriya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–5L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maximus Jones Hiroki Moriya

1st Serve In %

46.5%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.7%

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

31.6%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

30.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.7%

46.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

1.75

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

71.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.9%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.8%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maximus Jones Hiroki Moriya

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

66.3%

Break Points Converted %

100.0%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

51.7%

58.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

38.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maximus Jones 0 – 0 Hiroki Moriya

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-09

R16

Hiroki Moriya #518

Maximus Jones #489

6-3 7-6

3 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 25

15 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.6

Maximus Jones vs Hiroki Moriya — Prediction