ATP tennis predict — Maximilian Marterer vs Federico Arnaboldi

Challenger Clay Biella challenger · qualification - 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Maximilian Marterer

Germany

66.26%

Federico Arnaboldi

Italy

33.74%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.85

Market probability

50.41% / 49.59%

Why This Prediction?

Maximilian Marterer is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1699 vs 1522), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1706 vs 1514) and a stronger serve (64.7% vs 58.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1699.0 Elo 1522.3

1705.8 Elo (surface) 1514.4

180 Wins (Challenger) 70

90 Wins (surface) 58

6 Last 15 form 6

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.033 Dominance ratio 0.903

1527 Rank 521

31.2 Age 26.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maximilian Marterer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-23.

Federico Arnaboldi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maximilian Marterer Federico Arnaboldi

1st Serve In %

66.4%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

62.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.1%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.9%

29.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

41.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.3%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.5%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.0%

53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.38

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maximilian Marterer Federico Arnaboldi

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

65.2%

56.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.1%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maximilian Marterer 1 – 0 Federico Arnaboldi

Clay Biella challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Maximilian Marterer #1527

Federico Arnaboldi #521

6-1 6-1

2 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

20 First Serve Won 14

11 Second Serve Won 4

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

Q3

Maximilian Marterer #239

Federico Arnaboldi #185

6-4 6-1

3 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 0

64 Service Points 46

40 First Serve In 34

27 First Serve Won 19

17 Second Serve Won 7

6 Break Points Saved 1

6 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Maximilian Marterer vs Federico Arnaboldi — Prediction