ATP tennis predict — Maximilian Homberg vs Lorenzo Carboni

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · qualification - round of 16 10:05

Predicted probability

Maximilian Homberg

Germany

51.68%

Lorenzo Carboni

Italy

48.32%

Average Odds

2.43 / 1.51

Market probability

38.32% / 61.68%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1602.8 Elo 1395.2

1573.4 Elo (surface) 1418.7

4 Wins (Challenger) 27

1 Wins (surface) 17

4 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.192 Dominance ratio 0.940

819 Rank 481

23.5 Age 20.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maximilian Homberg

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Lorenzo Carboni

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maximilian Homberg Lorenzo Carboni

1st Serve In %

—

75.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

67.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

38.1%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.2%

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.4%

62.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

38.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.0%

30.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.08

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maximilian Homberg Lorenzo Carboni

Break Points Saved %

—

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

—

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.2%

42.5%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maximilian Homberg 0 – 0 Lorenzo Carboni

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-10

qualification - round of 16

Lorenzo Carboni #481

Maximilian Homberg #819

6-1 6-1

0 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 0

47 Service Points 44

24 First Serve In 30

12 First Serve Won 19

5 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Maximilian Homberg vs Lorenzo Carboni — Prediction