ATP tennis predict — Maxime Chazal vs Joel Schwaerzler

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Maxime Chazal

France

19.22%

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

80.78%

Average Odds

3.01 / 1.35

Market probability

30.96% / 69.04%

Why This Prediction?

Joel Schwaerzler is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1707 vs 1479), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1650 vs 1458) and a stronger serve (67.6% vs 64.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1479.1 Elo 1707.5

1458.4 Elo (surface) 1650.2

63 Wins (Challenger) 73

52 Wins (surface) 55

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.148 Dominance ratio 1.172

439 Rank 185

33.4 Age 20.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maxime Chazal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-28.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxime Chazal Joel Schwaerzler

1st Serve In %

58.5%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.1%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.1%

44.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.9%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.5%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

59.3%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxime Chazal Joel Schwaerzler

Break Points Saved %

54.7%

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

31.1%

27.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.2%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

35.0%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maxime Chazal 0 – 0 Joel Schwaerzler

Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Maxime Chazal #439

Joel Schwaerzler #185

2-6 6-4 7-6

1 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

31 First Serve Won 42

20 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 7

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.0 Average Odds 1.4

Maxime Chazal vs Joel Schwaerzler — Prediction