ATP tennis predict — Maxim Mrva vs Pierluigi Basile

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Maxim Mrva

Czech Republic

59.33%

Pierluigi Basile

Italy

40.67%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.29

Market probability

59.48% / 40.52%

Why This Prediction?

Maxim Mrva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1636 vs 1530), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1637 vs 1532) and a stronger return game (45.6% vs 39.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1635.7 Elo 1529.9

1637.0 Elo (surface) 1531.9

45 Wins (Challenger) 13

30 Wins (surface) 12

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.190 Dominance ratio 1.103

317 Rank 627

19.0 Age 19.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maxim Mrva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–3L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Pierluigi Basile

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxim Mrva Pierluigi Basile

1st Serve In %

—

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

36.5%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.56

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.6%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.3%

33.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxim Mrva Pierluigi Basile

Break Points Saved %

—

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

21.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.9%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

39.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maxim Mrva 0 – 0 Pierluigi Basile

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-10

1. round

Maxim Mrva #317

Pierluigi Basile #627

6-4 1-6 7-5

6 Aces 4

9 Double Faults 6

132 Service Points 113

67 First Serve In 61

40 First Serve Won 38

28 Second Serve Won 25

20 Break Points Saved 11

26 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Maxim Mrva vs Pierluigi Basile — Prediction