ATP tennis predict — Maxim Mrva vs Marvin Moeller

Challenger Clay Tulln challenger · 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Maxim Mrva

Czech Republic

58.21%

Marvin Moeller

Germany

41.79%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.22

Market probability

57.96% / 42.04%

Why This Prediction?

Maxim Mrva is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (43.9% vs 38.8% of return points won) and better recent form (1 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1718.8 Elo 1722.4

1733.5 Elo (surface) 1728.9

53 Wins (Challenger) 73

38 Wins (surface) 48

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.979 Dominance ratio 1.020

212 Rank 278

19.1 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maxim Mrva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–3L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxim Mrva Marvin Moeller

1st Serve In %

—

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

56.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

42.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

37.4%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.6%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.3%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxim Mrva Marvin Moeller

Break Points Saved %

—

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

—

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.9%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maxim Mrva 0 – 0 Marvin Moeller

Clay Tulln challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Marvin Moeller #278

Maxim Mrva #212

5-2

1 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

26 Service Points 19

11 First Serve In 15

5 First Serve Won 14

8 Second Serve Won 2

3 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Maxim Mrva vs Marvin Moeller — Prediction