ATP tennis predict — Maxim Mrva vs Guy Den Ouden

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · R16 13:00

Predicted probability

Maxim Mrva

Czech Republic

42.03%

Guy Den Ouden

Netherlands

57.97%

Average Odds

2.56 / 1.47

Market probability

36.48% / 63.52%

Why This Prediction?

Guy Den Ouden is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1744 vs 1655), a higher Elo rating (1677 vs 1655) and more wins on clay courts (62 vs 30).

Player Comparison

1654.8 Elo 1677.4

1654.8 Elo (surface) 1743.7

45 Wins (Challenger) 69

30 Wins (surface) 62

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.105 Dominance ratio 1.128

317 Rank 222

19.0 Age 24.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maxim Mrva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–3L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Guy Den Ouden

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxim Mrva Guy Den Ouden

1st Serve In %

—

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

53.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

29.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.6%

67.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

53.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.3%

36.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxim Mrva Guy Den Ouden

Break Points Saved %

—

61.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.9%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

49.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maxim Mrva 0 – 0 Guy Den Ouden

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-05

R16

Guy Den Ouden #222

Maxim Mrva #317

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 4

58 Service Points 58

37 First Serve In 34

23 First Serve Won 24

4 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 6

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Maxim Mrva vs Guy Den Ouden — Prediction