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Maxim Mrva vs Francesco Maestrelli — Prediction

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · R16 11:00

Predicted probability

Maxim Mrva

Czech Republic

58.64%

Average Odds

2.28  /  1.56

Market probability

40.62%  /  59.38%

Why This Prediction?

Maxim Mrva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1741 vs 1651), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1716 vs 1686) and a stronger return game (44.5% vs 38.8% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1741.5 Elo 1651.2
1716.0 Elo (surface) 1686.2
55 Wins (Challenger) 137
16 Wins (surface) 57
10 Last 15 form 6
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.070 Dominance ratio 1.080
217 Rank 171
19.2 Age 23.8
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maxim Mrva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–4L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Francesco Maestrelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxim Mrva Francesco Maestrelli

1st Serve In %

—
64.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

—
71.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—
44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—
23.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—
49.2%

Aces per Service Game

—
0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

—
0.32

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.5%
59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

60.9%
81.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%
57.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.2%
41.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.4%
44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.23
0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17
0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxim Mrva Francesco Maestrelli

Break Points Saved %

—
60.3%

Break Points Converted %

—
35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

42.3%
67.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.5%
44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maxim Mrva and Francesco Maestrelli have never played each other.

Maxim Mrva — Last 10

W L W L L W L W W W

Francesco Maestrelli — Last 10

W L L L W W L W W L