ATP tennis predict — Maxim Mrva vs Alex Barrena

Challenger Clay Todi challenger · SF 18:00

Predicted probability

Maxim Mrva

Czech Republic

65.17%

Alex Barrena

Argentina

34.83%

Average Odds

1.69 / 2.08

Market probability

55.17% / 44.83%

Why This Prediction?

Maxim Mrva is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1689 vs 1604), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1700 vs 1632) and a stronger return game (44.0% vs 40.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1688.5 Elo 1604.0

1699.7 Elo (surface) 1631.8

48 Wins (Challenger) 80

33 Wins (surface) 80

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.174 Dominance ratio 1.068

317 Rank 261

19.0 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Maxim Mrva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 12W–3L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxim Mrva Alex Barrena

1st Serve In %

—

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.6%

54.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.7%

40.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

40.3%

38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Maxim Mrva Alex Barrena

Break Points Saved %

—

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

—

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

47.9%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.6%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Maxim Mrva 0 – 0 Alex Barrena

Clay Todi challenger · 2026-08-15

SF

Maxim Mrva #317

Alex Barrena #261

6-3 6-2

2 Aces 0

4 Double Faults 2

60 Service Points 48

33 First Serve In 30

23 First Serve Won 13

12 Second Serve Won 6

5 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Maxim Mrva vs Alex Barrena — Prediction