ATP tennis predict — Max Purcell vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 1. round 05:05

Predicted probability

Max Purcell

Australia

28.51%

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Mexico

71.49%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.04

Market probability

54.40% / 45.60%

Why This Prediction?

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1585 vs 1489) and a higher Elo rating (1619 vs 1489).

Player Comparison

1488.9 Elo 1619.1

1488.6 Elo (surface) 1584.6

157 Wins (Challenger) 59

139 Wins (surface) 29

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.039 Dominance ratio 0.938

803 Rank 272

28.4 Age 21.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Purcell

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Purcell Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

1st Serve In %

54.3%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.8%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.2%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.47

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.3%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

65.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

22.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

43.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Purcell Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Break Points Saved %

63.1%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.2%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

71.0%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Purcell 0 – 0 Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Max Purcell #803

Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez #272

6-3 6-4

15 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 3

58 Service Points 48

39 First Serve In 28

33 First Serve Won 22

9 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Max Purcell vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez — Prediction