ATP tennis predict — Max Purcell vs Harold Mayot

Challenger Hard Kingston challenger · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Max Purcell

Australia

22.30%

Harold Mayot

France

77.70%

Average Odds

2.00 / 1.72

Market probability

46.24% / 53.76%

Why This Prediction?

Harold Mayot is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1660 vs 1471), a higher Elo rating (1644 vs 1470) and a stronger return game (44.6% vs 36.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1470.4 Elo 1644.0

1471.2 Elo (surface) 1660.2

155 Wins (Challenger) 131

137 Wins (surface) 84

11 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.008 Dominance ratio 1.263

1046 Rank 252

28.4 Age 24.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Purcell

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Harold Mayot

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–7L · 56.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Purcell Harold Mayot

1st Serve In %

54.3%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.8%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

45.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.2%

40.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.3%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

76.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

68.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Purcell Harold Mayot

Break Points Saved %

63.1%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

37.2%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

67.7%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Purcell 1 – 0 Harold Mayot

Hard Kingston challenger · 2026-08-19

R16

Harold Mayot #252

Max Purcell #1046

3-6 6-3 6-4

12 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 2

82 Service Points 82

46 First Serve In 46

35 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2

Hard Lille CH · 2023-03-27

R16

Max Purcell #99

Harold Mayot #246

7-6(5) 7-5

7 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 5

86 Service Points 83

54 First Serve In 57

39 First Serve Won 35

13 Second Serve Won 12

7 Break Points Saved 2

10 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Max Purcell vs Harold Mayot — Prediction