ATP tennis predict — Max Purcell vs Garrett Johns

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · R16 18:30

Predicted probability

Max Purcell

Australia

36.53%

Garrett Johns

USA

63.47%

Average Odds

1.12 / 5.06

Market probability

81.88% / 18.12%

Why This Prediction?

Garrett Johns is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1572 vs 1482), a higher Elo rating (1575 vs 1483) and a stronger return game (45.7% vs 34.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1482.5 Elo 1575.4

1481.5 Elo (surface) 1571.9

156 Wins (Challenger) 62

138 Wins (surface) 37

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.962 Dominance ratio 1.324

945 Rank 406

28.4 Age 25.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Purcell

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Garrett Johns

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Purcell Garrett Johns

1st Serve In %

54.3%

49.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.8%

73.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

23.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.2%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.3%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

34.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

53.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Purcell Garrett Johns

Break Points Saved %

63.1%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.2%

40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Purcell 0 – 0 Garrett Johns

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-26

R16

Max Purcell #945

Garrett Johns #406

6-2 6-2

6 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 3

53 Service Points 53

28 First Serve In 30

22 First Serve Won 18

16 Second Serve Won 9

6 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 5.1

Max Purcell vs Garrett Johns — Prediction