ATP tennis predict — Max Purcell vs Blake Ellis

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · R16 06:10

Predicted probability

Max Purcell

Australia

73.24%

Blake Ellis

Australia

26.76%

Average Odds

1.08 / 6.98

Market probability

86.60% / 13.40%

Why This Prediction?

Max Purcell is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1814 vs 1577), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1742 vs 1583) and more wins on hard courts (40 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1814.4 Elo 1577.3

1742.1 Elo (surface) 1583.3

158 Wins (Challenger) 70

140 Wins (surface) 68

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.128 Dominance ratio 1.074

803 Rank 477

28.4 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Purcell

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Blake Ellis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Purcell Blake Ellis

1st Serve In %

54.3%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.8%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.2%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.76

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.3%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

78.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

42.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.94

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Purcell Blake Ellis

Break Points Saved %

63.1%

63.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.2%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

70.8%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

31.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Purcell 0 – 0 Blake Ellis

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Max Purcell #803

Blake Ellis #477

6-4 6-4

10 Aces 12

4 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

25 First Serve Won 29

9 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 7.0

Max Purcell vs Blake Ellis — Prediction