ATP tennis predict — Max Purcell vs Andres Andrade

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · QF 20:30

Predicted probability

Max Purcell

Australia

35.16%

Andres Andrade

Ecuador

64.84%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.60

Market probability

64.36% / 35.64%

Why This Prediction?

Andres Andrade is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1612 vs 1497), a higher Elo rating (1606 vs 1497) and a stronger return game (40.0% vs 30.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1496.6 Elo 1605.5

1496.9 Elo (surface) 1611.5

157 Wins (Challenger) 73

139 Wins (surface) 38

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.967 Dominance ratio 0.861

945 Rank 243

28.4 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Purcell

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-18.

Andres Andrade

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Purcell Andres Andrade

1st Serve In %

54.3%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.8%

70.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.7%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.7%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.2%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.3%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.0%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.3%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.6%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Purcell Andres Andrade

Break Points Saved %

63.1%

80.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.2%

55.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.0%

45.6%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

35.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Purcell 0 – 0 Andres Andrade

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-27

QF

Andres Andrade #243

Max Purcell #945

6-3 6-3

2 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 3

55 Service Points 53

26 First Serve In 31

15 First Serve Won 25

14 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.4

Max Purcell vs Andres Andrade — Prediction