ATP tennis predict — Max Houkes vs Vilius Gaubas

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Max Houkes

Netherlands

39.37%

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

60.63%

Average Odds

2.58 / 1.45

Market probability

35.98% / 64.02%

Why This Prediction?

Vilius Gaubas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1653 vs 1582), more wins on clay courts (17 vs 0) and a stronger serve (63.7% vs 55.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1582.0 Elo 1653.2

1624.8 Elo (surface) 1614.4

64 Wins (Challenger) 79

63 Wins (surface) 70

8 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.131 Dominance ratio 1.012

242 Rank 120

26.1 Age 21.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Houkes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Vilius Gaubas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Houkes Vilius Gaubas

1st Serve In %

67.0%

61.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.6%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.1%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

63.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

68.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.6%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

46.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Houkes Vilius Gaubas

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

71.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Houkes 1 – 0 Vilius Gaubas

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Max Houkes #242

Vilius Gaubas #120

2-6 6-4 6-4

9 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 4

82 Service Points 101

51 First Serve In 69

38 First Serve Won 48

18 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.4

Clay Alicante CH · 2026-03-23

R16

Max Houkes #251

Vilius Gaubas #105

6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4)

3 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 7

133 Service Points 128

76 First Serve In 73

42 First Serve Won 41

26 Second Serve Won 24

7 Break Points Saved 5

14 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Max Houkes vs Vilius Gaubas — Prediction