ATP tennis predict — Max Houkes vs Sumit Nagal

Challenger Clay Hamburg challenger · 1. round 16:40

Predicted probability

Max Houkes

Netherlands

32.29%

Sumit Nagal

India

67.71%

Average Odds

2.08 / 1.69

Market probability

44.83% / 55.17%

Why This Prediction?

Sumit Nagal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1703 vs 1592), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1700 vs 1628) and more wins on clay courts (171 vs 64).

Player Comparison

1591.8 Elo 1702.9

1628.5 Elo (surface) 1700.3

65 Wins (Challenger) 221

64 Wins (surface) 171

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 2

1.044 Dominance ratio 0.983

242 Rank 235

26.1 Age 29.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Houkes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Sumit Nagal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Houkes Sumit Nagal

1st Serve In %

67.0%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.6%

61.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.1%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%

38.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.6%

44.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

42.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Houkes Sumit Nagal

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

18.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Houkes 0 – 2 Sumit Nagal

Clay Hamburg challenger · 2026-08-11

1. round

Max Houkes #242

Sumit Nagal #235

7-5 6-2

2 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 0

63 Service Points 47

46 First Serve In 36

33 First Serve Won 23

11 Second Serve Won 8

5 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Clay Tampere CH · 2025-07-21

R16

Sumit Nagal #306

Max Houkes #288

6-2 6-4

0 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 7

95 Service Points 66

72 First Serve In 38

45 First Serve Won 24

10 Second Serve Won 10

11 Break Points Saved 7

12 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome CH · 2023-04-24

QF

Sumit Nagal #347

Max Houkes #303

7-5 6-0

0 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 5

48 Service Points 54

32 First Serve In 33

28 First Serve Won 19

10 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 2

2 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Max Houkes vs Sumit Nagal — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Max Houkes — Last 10

Sumit Nagal — Last 10