ATP tennis predict — Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Max Houkes

Netherlands

37.38%

Roberto Carballes Baena

Spain

62.62%

Average Odds

2.09 / 1.68

Market probability

44.56% / 55.44%

Why This Prediction?

Roberto Carballes Baena is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1746 vs 1637), a higher Elo rating (1683 vs 1595) and more wins on clay courts (129 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1595.1 Elo 1682.8

1637.3 Elo (surface) 1746.4

64 Wins (Challenger) 267

63 Wins (surface) 250

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.134 Dominance ratio 0.861

241 Rank 176

26.1 Age 33.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Houkes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Roberto Carballes Baena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Houkes Roberto Carballes Baena

1st Serve In %

67.0%

62.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.6%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

37.1%

54.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.3%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.3%

55.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.0%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.2%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.6%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

54.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Houkes Roberto Carballes Baena

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

59.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.2%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.1%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

39.3%

55.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Houkes 0 – 0 Roberto Carballes Baena

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-28

1. round

Roberto Carballes Baena #176

Max Houkes #241

6-4 3-6 6-2

5 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 7

76 Service Points 88

53 First Serve In 56

32 First Serve Won 43

13 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Prediction