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Max Dahlin vs Matteo Martineau — Prediction

Challenger Clay Bonn challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Max Dahlin

Sweden

14.91%

Matteo Martineau

France

85.09%

Average Odds

1.64  /  2.15

Market probability

56.73%  /  43.27%

Why This Prediction?

Matteo Martineau is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1543 vs 1413), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1436 vs 1426) and more wins on clay courts (65 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1413.4 Elo 1543.4
1426.1 Elo (surface) 1436.0
0 Wins (Challenger) 149
0 Wins (surface) 65
0 Last 15 form 9
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.727 Dominance ratio 1.336
1378 Rank 280
20.6 Age 27.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Dahlin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Matteo Martineau

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–5L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Dahlin Matteo Martineau

1st Serve In %

67.5%
66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.6%
71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%
42.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.9%
24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%
44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.35
0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17
0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

57.3%
67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.0%
70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.4%
41.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%
27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.3%
52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.65
0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29
0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Dahlin Matteo Martineau

Break Points Saved %

76.5%
60.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%
27.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.0%
60.5%

Break Points Converted %

38.5%
39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Dahlin 00 Matteo Martineau

Clay Bonn challenger · 2026-07-28
6-4 7-5
4 Aces 1
2 Double Faults 5
66 Service Points 54
31 First Serve In 43
28 First Serve Won 32
13 Second Serve Won 7
3 Break Points Saved 4
11 Break Points Faced 14
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Max Dahlin — Last 8

L L W W W L L L

Matteo Martineau — Last 10

W W W L W L L W L L