ATP tennis predict — Max Basing vs Tiago Pereira

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · R16 12:05

Predicted probability

Max Basing

Great Britain

58.77%

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

41.23%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.14

Market probability

56.46% / 43.54%

Why This Prediction?

Max Basing is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1617 vs 1446), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1608 vs 1547) and a lighter recent match load (20 vs 28 games played recently).

Player Comparison

1617.5 Elo 1445.9

1607.7 Elo (surface) 1546.9

19 Wins (Challenger) 31

16 Wins (surface) 13

7 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.000 Dominance ratio 0.921

250 Rank 389

23.8 Age 22.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Basing

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Tiago Pereira

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-09.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Basing Tiago Pereira

1st Serve In %

64.8%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.0%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

39.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.8%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.3%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Basing Tiago Pereira

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

64.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Basing 0 – 0 Tiago Pereira

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-05

R16

Max Basing #250

Tiago Pereira #389

6-3 6-1

2 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 1

56 Service Points 48

30 First Serve In 34

19 First Serve Won 30

9 Second Serve Won 5

5 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Max Basing vs Tiago Pereira — Prediction