ATP tennis predict — Max Basing vs Mert Alkaya

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · R16 09:00

Predicted probability

Max Basing

Great Britain

54.17%

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

45.83%

Average Odds

1.57 / 2.30

Market probability

59.43% / 40.57%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1630.1 Elo 1585.4

1589.1 Elo (surface) 1587.6

23 Wins (Challenger) 21

20 Wins (surface) 20

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.984 Dominance ratio 0.769

259 Rank 300

23.9 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Basing

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Basing Mert Alkaya

1st Serve In %

64.8%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.0%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.8%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

60.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.3%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Basing Mert Alkaya

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

46.7%

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Basing 0 – 0 Mert Alkaya

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-10

R16

Max Basing #259

Mert Alkaya #300

6-4 7-5

1 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

19 First Serve Won 25

19 Second Serve Won 16

0 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Max Basing vs Mert Alkaya — Prediction