ATP tennis predict — Max Basing vs Joel Schwaerzler

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Max Basing

Great Britain

33.65%

Joel Schwaerzler

Austria

66.35%

Average Odds

2.23 / 1.60

Market probability

41.78% / 58.22%

Why This Prediction?

Joel Schwaerzler is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1657 vs 1591), a stronger serve (70.2% vs 60.1% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1628 vs 1594).

Player Comparison

1593.9 Elo 1627.8

1590.5 Elo (surface) 1657.0

22 Wins (Challenger) 72

19 Wins (surface) 17

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.915 Dominance ratio 1.333

259 Rank 171

23.9 Age 20.6

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Basing

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Joel Schwaerzler

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–8L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Basing Joel Schwaerzler

1st Serve In %

64.8%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.8%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.0%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.8%

44.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.3%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Basing Joel Schwaerzler

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

57.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

27.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Basing 0 – 0 Joel Schwaerzler

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-09-01

1. round

Joel Schwaerzler #171

Max Basing #259

6-3 6-7 6-4

2 Aces 6

7 Double Faults 5

108 Service Points 100

64 First Serve In 60

46 First Serve Won 40

16 Second Serve Won 24

9 Break Points Saved 13

15 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Max Basing vs Joel Schwaerzler — Prediction