ATP tennis predict — Max Alcala Gurri vs Lorenzo Angelini

Challenger Clay Cordenons challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Max Alcala Gurri

Spain

75.47%

Lorenzo Angelini

Italy

24.53%

Average Odds

1.17 / 4.67

Market probability

79.97% / 20.03%

Why This Prediction?

Max Alcala Gurri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1666 vs 1477), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1682 vs 1514) and more career match wins (48 vs 4).

Player Comparison

1665.8 Elo 1477.1

1682.3 Elo (surface) 1514.3

48 Wins (Challenger) 4

48 Wins (surface) 4

11 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.975 Dominance ratio 0.887

229 Rank 593

23.8 Age 20.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Alcala Gurri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Lorenzo Angelini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Alcala Gurri Lorenzo Angelini

1st Serve In %

65.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

52.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.1%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.08

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.52

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.2%

61.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

59.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.0%

43.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

37.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

52.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Alcala Gurri Lorenzo Angelini

Break Points Saved %

45.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Alcala Gurri 0 – 0 Lorenzo Angelini

Clay Cordenons challenger · 2026-07-16

R16

Max Alcala Gurri #229

Lorenzo Angelini #593

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 4

45 Service Points 60

31 First Serve In 41

23 First Serve Won 20

6 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.7

Max Alcala Gurri vs Lorenzo Angelini — Prediction