ATP tennis predict — Max Alcala Gurri vs Franco Roncadelli

Challenger Clay Cordenons challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Max Alcala Gurri

Spain

59.12%

Franco Roncadelli

Uruguay

40.88%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.06

Market probability

69.55% / 30.45%

Why This Prediction?

Max Alcala Gurri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1676 vs 1625), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1694 vs 1657) and more aces per game (0.13 vs 0.05).

Player Comparison

1676.1 Elo 1625.3

1693.7 Elo (surface) 1657.1

49 Wins (Challenger) 62

49 Wins (surface) 62

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.961 Dominance ratio 1.016

229 Rank 238

23.8 Age 26.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Alcala Gurri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Franco Roncadelli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Alcala Gurri Franco Roncadelli

1st Serve In %

65.1%

68.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

52.3%

65.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

43.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.1%

49.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.08

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.52

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.2%

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

62.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.0%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

38.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Alcala Gurri Franco Roncadelli

Break Points Saved %

45.0%

70.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

56.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

53.8%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Alcala Gurri 0 – 0 Franco Roncadelli

Clay Cordenons challenger · 2026-07-17

QF

Max Alcala Gurri #229

Franco Roncadelli #238

6-1 6-3

1 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 1

37 Service Points 50

26 First Serve In 35

23 First Serve Won 17

9 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Max Alcala Gurri vs Franco Roncadelli — Prediction