ATP tennis predict — Max Alcala Gurri vs Dusan Lajovic

Challenger Clay Sevilla challenger · SF 20:30

Predicted probability

Max Alcala Gurri

Spain

61.87%

Dusan Lajovic

Serbia

38.13%

Average Odds

2.75 / 1.41

Market probability

33.89% / 66.11%

Why This Prediction?

Max Alcala Gurri is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (46.2% vs 37.8% of return points won) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1763.8 Elo 1805.2

1776.7 Elo (surface) 1776.9

57 Wins (Challenger) 153

57 Wins (surface) 117

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.205 Dominance ratio 1.061

177 Rank 167

24.0 Age 36.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Alcala Gurri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Dusan Lajovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Alcala Gurri Dusan Lajovic

1st Serve In %

65.1%

67.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

52.3%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

48.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

24.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.1%

40.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.08

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.52

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.2%

64.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.0%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Alcala Gurri Dusan Lajovic

Break Points Saved %

45.0%

60.8%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

28.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Alcala Gurri 0 – 0 Dusan Lajovic

Clay Sevilla challenger · 2026-09-12

SF

Dusan Lajovic #167

Max Alcala Gurri #177

6-3 3-0

0 Aces 1

0 Double Faults 0

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

16 First Serve Won 19

3 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Max Alcala Gurri vs Dusan Lajovic — Prediction