ATP tennis predict — Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · R16 11:30

Predicted probability

Max Alcala Gurri

Spain

68.35%

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Spain

31.65%

Average Odds

1.33 / 3.18

Market probability

70.51% / 29.49%

Why This Prediction?

Max Alcala Gurri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1766 vs 1640), a higher Elo rating (1759 vs 1646) and a better head-to-head record against Carlos Sanchez Jover (1-0).

Player Comparison

1759.0 Elo 1646.4

1765.9 Elo (surface) 1639.6

58 Wins (Challenger) 94

58 Wins (surface) 89

11 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.205 Dominance ratio 0.949

163 Rank 334

24.0 Age 26.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Max Alcala Gurri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–4L · 73.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Carlos Sanchez Jover

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Alcala Gurri Carlos Sanchez Jover

1st Serve In %

65.1%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

52.3%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

38.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

35.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.1%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.08

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.52

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

67.2%

61.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.6%

59.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.0%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

39.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Max Alcala Gurri Carlos Sanchez Jover

Break Points Saved %

45.0%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.8%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

52.9%

37.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Max Alcala Gurri 1 – 0 Carlos Sanchez Jover

Clay Plovdiv 4 challenger · 2026-09-23

R16

Max Alcala Gurri #163

Carlos Sanchez Jover #334

6-3 6-2

0 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

29 First Serve Won 18

11 Second Serve Won 4

5 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Clay Royan challenger · 2026-06-18

QF

Max Alcala Gurri #272

Carlos Sanchez Jover #371

6-2 6-7 7-5

2 Aces 2

8 Double Faults 4

121 Service Points 124

84 First Serve In 74

52 First Serve Won 40

13 Second Serve Won 22

11 Break Points Saved 14

16 Break Points Faced 22

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover — Prediction