ATP tennis predict — Matyas Cerny vs Vadym Ursu

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · qualification - 1. round 11:30

Predicted probability

Matyas Cerny

Czech Republic

49.95%

Vadym Ursu

Ukraine

50.05%

Average Odds

2.68 / 1.35

Market probability

33.50% / 66.50%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1440.9 Elo 1421.3

1478.8 Elo (surface) 1420.6

13 Wins (Challenger) 45

1 Wins (surface) 38

5 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.156 Dominance ratio 0.880

705 Rank 405

25.0 Age 29.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matyas Cerny

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Vadym Ursu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–7L · 12.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matyas Cerny Vadym Ursu

1st Serve In %

—

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

59.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

37.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

42.0%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.70

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.2%

59.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.7%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

46.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.7%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matyas Cerny Vadym Ursu

Break Points Saved %

—

48.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

44.8%

50.7%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

39.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matyas Cerny and Vadym Ursu have never played each other.

Matyas Cerny vs Vadym Ursu — Prediction