ATP tennis predict — Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

28.49%

Zsombor Piros

Hungary

71.51%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.76

Market probability

65.71% / 34.29%

Why This Prediction?

Zsombor Piros is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1778 vs 1641), a higher Elo rating (1820 vs 1678) and a stronger return game (39.2% vs 35.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1677.8 Elo 1820.4

1641.2 Elo (surface) 1778.0

65 Wins 33

41 Wins (surface) 20

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.026 Dominance ratio 1.019

95 Rank 118

25.2 Age 26.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Zsombor Piros

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 13W–4L · 76.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Zsombor Piros

1st Serve In %

59.9%

54.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.7%

54.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

55.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.1%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

51.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Zsombor Piros

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

70.4%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

68.1%

Break Points Converted %

43.9%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci 0 – 1 Zsombor Piros

Hard US Open · 2026-09-01

1. round

Mattia Bellucci #95

Zsombor Piros #118

6-4 6-2 6-0

14 Aces 7

5 Double Faults 7

71 Service Points 90

47 First Serve In 42

42 First Serve Won 24

10 Second Serve Won 20

4 Break Points Saved 9

4 Break Points Faced 15

33 Winners 15

24 Unforced Errors 37

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Hard Cherbourg CH · 2024-02-12

R16

Zsombor Piros #128

Mattia Bellucci #193

6-3 7-5

1 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 1

66 Service Points 69

44 First Serve In 38

31 First Serve Won 25

12 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mattia Bellucci vs Zsombor Piros — Prediction