ATP tennis predict — Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 04:40

Predicted probability

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

41.30%

Zachary Svajda

USA

58.70%

Average Odds

2.47 / 1.53

Market probability

38.25% / 61.75%

Why This Prediction?

Zachary Svajda is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1703 vs 1641), a higher Elo rating (1713 vs 1665) and a stronger return game (37.3% vs 34.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1665.3 Elo 1713.2

1640.7 Elo (surface) 1702.7

63 Wins 65

39 Wins (surface) 52

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.034 Dominance ratio 1.018

80 Rank 87

25.2 Age None

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Zachary Svajda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda

1st Serve In %

59.9%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.7%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

56.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

76.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

56.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.1%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Zachary Svajda

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

48.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.9%

52.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci 0 – 0 Zachary Svajda

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-14

1. round

Mattia Bellucci #80

Zachary Svajda #87

7-6 7-6

8 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 3

85 Service Points 86

50 First Serve In 59

40 First Serve Won 39

14 Second Serve Won 20

6 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 6

26 Winners 21

40 Unforced Errors 35

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Mattia Bellucci vs Zachary Svajda — Prediction