ATP tennis predict — Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 09:05

Predicted probability

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

82.09%

Yi Zhou

China

17.91%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.84

Market probability

75.29% / 24.71%

Why This Prediction?

Mattia Bellucci is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1904 vs 1628), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1854 vs 1586) and a stronger return game (41.5% vs 38.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1904.5 Elo 1627.9

1854.3 Elo (surface) 1585.5

68 Wins 9

44 Wins (surface) 7

8 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.936 Dominance ratio 0.962

86 Rank 277

25.4 Age 21.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Yi Zhou

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-08.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Yi Zhou

1st Serve In %

58.8%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.9%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

43.9%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.3%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.9%

53.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.2%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

49.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Yi Zhou

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

29.5%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.8%

70.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci and Yi Zhou have never played each other.

Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou — Prediction