ATP tennis predict — Mattia Bellucci vs Luciano Darderi

ATP Hard Winston Salem · 2. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

61.15%

Luciano Darderi

Italy

38.85%

Average Odds

2.02 / 1.78

Market probability

46.84% / 53.16%

Why This Prediction?

Mattia Bellucci is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1662 vs 1520), more wins on hard courts (68 vs 1) and a stronger serve (66.7% vs 61.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1687.7 Elo 1767.8

1662.0 Elo (surface) 1520.3

65 Wins 93

41 Wins (surface) 18

9 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.041 Dominance ratio 0.866

96 Rank 22

25.2 Age 24.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Luciano Darderi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Luciano Darderi

1st Serve In %

59.9%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

48.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

33.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.7%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.77

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

52.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.1%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Luciano Darderi

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

71.2%

Break Points Converted %

43.9%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci 1 – 1 Luciano Darderi

Hard Winston Salem · 2026-08-25

2. round

Luciano Darderi #22

Mattia Bellucci #96

2-6 6-4 6-2

8 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 5

85 Service Points 79

55 First Serve In 47

38 First Serve Won 34

15 Second Serve Won 18

9 Break Points Saved 5

12 Break Points Faced 7

30 Winners 27

39 Unforced Errors 30

1.8 Average Odds 2.0

Clay Marrakech · 2026-03-30

R16

Luciano Darderi #19

Mattia Bellucci #73

6-4 6-2

2 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 4

49 Service Points 55

24 First Serve In 38

19 First Serve Won 30

19 Second Serve Won 3

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2023-01-16

Q3

Mattia Bellucci #152

Luciano Darderi #206

6-4 6-1

8 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 1

49 Service Points 56

25 First Serve In 35

19 First Serve Won 20

16 Second Serve Won 8

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 7