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Mattia Bellucci vs Keisuke Saitoh — Prediction

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · qualification - round of 16 06:30

Predicted probability

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

93.32%

Keisuke Saitoh

Japan

6.68%

Average Odds

1.05  /  8.32

Market probability

88.79%  /  11.21%

Why This Prediction?

Mattia Bellucci is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1863 vs 1323), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1797 vs 1321) and a stronger return game (41.5% vs 30.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1863.4 Elo 1322.6
1796.8 Elo (surface) 1320.6
94 Wins (Challenger) 6
68 Wins (surface) 5
10 Last 15 form 3
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.193 Dominance ratio 0.735
91 Rank 550
25.3 Age 25.4
left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Keisuke Saitoh

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Keisuke Saitoh

1st Serve In %

59.1%
—

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%
—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%
—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%
—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.5%
—

Aces per Service Game

0.55
—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%
67.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%
60.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%
56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.1%
21.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%
49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41
0.12

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23
0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Keisuke Saitoh

Break Points Saved %

62.3%
—

Break Points Converted %

27.1%
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%
51.6%

Break Points Converted %

43.9%
27.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci and Keisuke Saitoh have never played each other.

Mattia Bellucci — Last 10

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Keisuke Saitoh — Last 10

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