ATP tennis predict — Mattia Bellucci vs Jakub Mensik

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 2. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

34.67%

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

65.33%

Average Odds

3.57 / 1.30

Market probability

26.69% / 73.31%

Why This Prediction?

Jakub Mensik is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1868 vs 1680), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1721 vs 1658) and a stronger serve (68.1% vs 65.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1679.9 Elo 1868.4

1658.5 Elo (surface) 1720.7

64 Wins 103

40 Wins (surface) 76

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.045 Dominance ratio 1.044

80 Rank 17

25.2 Age 21.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Jakub Mensik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik

1st Serve In %

59.9%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

21.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.7%

55.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.1%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Jakub Mensik

Break Points Saved %

62.0%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.5%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

43.9%

54.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci 0 – 0 Jakub Mensik

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-15

2. round

Jakub Mensik #17

Mattia Bellucci #80

7-5 2-6 7-6

7 Aces 16

1 Double Faults 4

103 Service Points 109

53 First Serve In 60

40 First Serve Won 50

29 Second Serve Won 23

4 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 8

27 Winners 42

31 Unforced Errors 48

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Mattia Bellucci vs Jakub Mensik — Prediction