ATP tennis predict — Mattia Bellucci vs Elias Ymer

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 1. round 11:15

Predicted probability

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

80.09%

Elias Ymer

Sweden

19.91%

Average Odds

1.13 / 5.52

Market probability

83.01% / 16.99%

Why This Prediction?

Mattia Bellucci is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1890 vs 1677), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1836 vs 1639) and a stronger return game (41.5% vs 35.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1890.1 Elo 1676.9

1835.7 Elo (surface) 1638.6

66 Wins 150

42 Wins (surface) 78

7 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.936 Dominance ratio 0.869

91 Rank 192

25.3 Age 30.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Elias Ymer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Elias Ymer

1st Serve In %

59.1%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

23.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.5%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.3%

58.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

64.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.9%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.2%

24.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

46.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Elias Ymer

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

39.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.8%

64.1%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci 1 – 1 Elias Ymer

Hard Cary CH · 2024-08-12

Q1

Mattia Bellucci #113

Elias Ymer #206

7-5 7-5

6 Aces 3

3 Double Faults 3

73 Service Points 87

39 First Serve In 46

26 First Serve Won 27

17 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Alicante CH · 2023-10-02

R16

Elias Ymer #172

Mattia Bellucci #144

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3

7 Aces 12

8 Double Faults 3

99 Service Points 87

55 First Serve In 57

42 First Serve Won 46

24 Second Serve Won 16

6 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 5