ATP tennis predict — Mattia Bellucci vs Alexandre Muller

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 2. round 09:30

Predicted probability

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

73.15%

Alexandre Muller

France

26.85%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.75

Market probability

65.95% / 34.05%

Why This Prediction?

Mattia Bellucci is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1896 vs 1785), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1843 vs 1766) and a stronger serve (65.3% vs 62.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1895.8 Elo 1784.9

1842.8 Elo (surface) 1765.6

67 Wins 96

43 Wins (surface) 53

7 Last 15 form 6

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.936 Dominance ratio 1.108

86 Rank 133

25.4 Age 29.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Alexandre Muller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Alexandre Muller

1st Serve In %

59.4%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.3%

46.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

48.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.3%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

74.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.9%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.2%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.5%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Alexandre Muller

Break Points Saved %

59.7%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

27.3%

26.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.8%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

45.8%

38.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci 2 – 0 Alexandre Muller

Hard Jingshan challenger · 2026-09-30

1. round

Mattia Bellucci #91

Alexandre Muller #132

6-0 6-3

8 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 24

7 Second Serve Won 3

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.5

Hard Tokyo · 2024-09-25

Q1

Mattia Bellucci #103

Alexandre Muller #71

4-6 6-2 7-6(3)

14 Aces 3

6 Double Faults 0

97 Service Points 108

58 First Serve In 71

42 First Serve Won 47

21 Second Serve Won 19

7 Break Points Saved 6

10 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mattia Bellucci vs Alexandre Muller — Prediction