ATP tennis predict — Mattia Bellucci vs Adam Walton

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · R16 05:10

Predicted probability

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

51.09%

Adam Walton

Australia

48.91%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.90

Market probability

51.08% / 48.92%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1877.3 Elo 1860.9

1816.4 Elo (surface) 1793.2

97 Wins (Challenger) 118

71 Wins (surface) 114

11 Last 15 form 13

3 Head-to-head wins 0

1.193 Dominance ratio 0.927

91 Rank 97

25.3 Age 27.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Mattia Bellucci

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Adam Walton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

33 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Adam Walton

1st Serve In %

59.1%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.8%

71.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.3%

54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.5%

51.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.0%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.7%

63.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.5%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.6%

25.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Mattia Bellucci Adam Walton

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

27.1%

42.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.5%

56.5%

Break Points Converted %

45.3%

57.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci 3 – 0 Adam Walton

Hard Cap Cana CH · 2026-03-10

SF

Mattia Bellucci #94

Adam Walton #91

6-3 7-5

11 Aces 4

2 Double Faults 0

69 Service Points 54

45 First Serve In 35

36 First Serve Won 21

11 Second Serve Won 13

5 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2025-10-01

R128

Mattia Bellucci #69

Adam Walton #77

7-6(6) 6-1

9 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 1

58 Service Points 54

37 First Serve In 39

30 First Serve Won 29

15 Second Serve Won 8

0 Break Points Saved 0

0 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Atlanta · 2024-07-22

Q2

Mattia Bellucci #146

Adam Walton #95

7-6(4) 3-6 6-1

9 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 3

81 Service Points 95

51 First Serve In 71

40 First Serve Won 49

18 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Mattia Bellucci vs Adam Walton — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci — Last 10

Adam Walton — Last 10