ATP tennis predict — Matthew William Donald vs Giovanni Oradini

Challenger Clay Biella challenger · qualification - 1. round 14:30

Predicted probability

Matthew William Donald

Czech Republic

68.66%

Giovanni Oradini

Italy

31.34%

Average Odds

1.58 / 2.22

Market probability

58.42% / 41.58%

Why This Prediction?

Matthew William Donald is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1589 vs 1464), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1561 vs 1477) and better recent form (8 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7).

Player Comparison

1588.7 Elo 1463.7

1561.5 Elo (surface) 1477.3

14 Wins (Challenger) 43

11 Wins (surface) 30

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.766 Dominance ratio 0.956

443 Rank 637

21.8 Age 29.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matthew William Donald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Giovanni Oradini

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew William Donald Giovanni Oradini

1st Serve In %

—

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

39.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

53.7%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

66.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.7%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.9%

24.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew William Donald Giovanni Oradini

Break Points Saved %

—

65.0%

Break Points Converted %

—

18.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.4%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.8%

26.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matthew William Donald 0 – 0 Giovanni Oradini

Clay Biella challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Giovanni Oradini #637

Matthew William Donald #443

6-7 7-5 6-2

2 Aces 12

6 Double Faults 4

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

46 First Serve Won 51

13 Second Serve Won 24

5 Break Points Saved 7

10 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Matthew William Donald vs Giovanni Oradini — Prediction