ATP tennis predict — Matthew William Donald vs Gianluca Cadenasso

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Matthew William Donald

Czech Republic

29.83%

Gianluca Cadenasso

Italy

70.17%

Average Odds

2.42 / 1.52

Market probability

38.58% / 61.42%

Why This Prediction?

Gianluca Cadenasso is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1666 vs 1522), a higher Elo rating (1655 vs 1549) and a stronger return game (44.2% vs 35.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1548.6 Elo 1655.4

1522.3 Elo (surface) 1666.5

14 Wins (Challenger) 28

11 Wins (surface) 28

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.766 Dominance ratio 1.111

468 Rank 219

21.9 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matthew William Donald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Gianluca Cadenasso

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew William Donald Gianluca Cadenasso

1st Serve In %

—

66.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

65.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.9%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.7%

62.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

49.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.9%

39.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.22

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew William Donald Gianluca Cadenasso

Break Points Saved %

—

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.4%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

41.8%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matthew William Donald 0 – 0 Gianluca Cadenasso

Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Matthew William Donald #468

Gianluca Cadenasso #219

6-3 4-6 7-5

1 Aces 6

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

6 Break Points Saved 3

10 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Matthew William Donald vs Gianluca Cadenasso — Prediction