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Matthew William Donald vs Dimitris Sakellaridis — Prediction

Challenger Clay Bari challenger · qualification - round of 16 11:30

Predicted probability

Matthew William Donald

Czech Republic

55.31%

Average Odds

1.25  /  3.67

Market probability

74.59%  /  25.41%

Why This Prediction?

Matthew William Donald is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1582 vs 1489), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1567 vs 1517) and better recent form (8 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7).

Player Comparison

1582.5 Elo 1489.1
1566.9 Elo (surface) 1517.1
16 Wins (Challenger) 9
13 Wins (surface) 6
8 Last 15 form 7
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.766 Dominance ratio 1.078
460 Rank 557
21.9 Age 20.4
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matthew William Donald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Dimitris Sakellaridis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew William Donald Dimitris Sakellaridis

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

60.6%
62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.9%
69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%
52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.3%
36.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%
63.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.20
0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38
0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew William Donald Dimitris Sakellaridis

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

52.9%
50.7%

Break Points Converted %

47.1%
48.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matthew William Donald and Dimitris Sakellaridis have never played each other.

Matthew William Donald — Last 10

W L W L L W L W L W

Dimitris Sakellaridis — Last 10

W L W L W L W L W L