ATP tennis predict — Matthew Forbes vs Spencer Johnson

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Matthew Forbes

USA

50.03%

Spencer Johnson

USA

49.97%

Average Odds

2.63 / 1.44

Market probability

35.38% / 64.62%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1567.9 Elo 1579.8

1563.7 Elo (surface) 1591.4

4 Wins (Challenger) 8

4 Wins (surface) 8

4 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.068 Dominance ratio 0.978

743 Rank 529

20.3 Age 23.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Matthew Forbes

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew Forbes Spencer Johnson

1st Serve In %

65.2%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.6%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

38.5%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.0%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.6%

51.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.47

0.59

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.3%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

52.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Matthew Forbes Spencer Johnson

Break Points Saved %

64.3%

44.4%

Break Points Converted %

18.2%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

61.1%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Matthew Forbes 0 – 0 Spencer Johnson

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-02

qualification - 1. round

Spencer Johnson #529

Matthew Forbes #743

6-1 7-5

1 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 2

57 Service Points 52

30 First Serve In 35

18 First Serve Won 26

12 Second Serve Won 12

2 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Matthew Forbes vs Spencer Johnson — Prediction